The cup final that could decide the Premier League
Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola will go head-to-head in the Carabao Cup final in March — Getty Images
Following Manchester City’s 3–1 win over Newcastle last night, they will face Arsenal in this season’s Carabao Cup final — a final that could have serious implications for the title race.
The Carabao Cup is often more of an afterthought for football clubs and their fans, however this season’s could be the most important in years. With Arsenal and Manchester City battling it out in the league, the final — which takes place on March 22nd — offers both sides a chance to get a leg up on the other. If Arsenal win, they will head into the business end of the season confident that they can fend off City’s chase. If City win, then the momentum will be with them while Arsenal start to sweat.
Arsenal made light work of Port Vale and Brighton in the early rounds before beating Crystal Palace on penalties. They then faced Chelsea in the semi-final — beating them 4–2 over two legs. Manchester City strolled to their 10th EFL Cup final, beating Huddersfield Town, Swansea City and Brentford all by two goals before dismantling Newcastle 5–1 over the two games.
In what will be their 17th head-to-head meeting, the latest instalment of Pep Guardiola versus Mikel Arteta has arguably the highest stakes yet. Guardiola has 9 wins, while Arteta has come out on top on 4 occasions — including Arsenal’s Community Shield victory on penalties in 2023. The only other occasion to come close in terms of stakes was Arsenal’s 4–1 FA Cup semi-final win back in July 2020 as Arsenal went on to win their first and only major trophy under Mikel Arteta.
While Pep dominated early meetings in this Master versus Apprentice rivalry, Arteta and Arsenal are unbeaten in the last six meetings between the two and will head into the final confident that they can lift the trophy. City have not beaten Arsenal since their 4–1 victory in the Premier League back in April 2023. Another win for Arsenal could be proof that Arteta has genuinely gained the upper hand on his former mentor — and set Arsenal on their way to win their first league title in over 20 years.
With Arsenal leading the title race the cup final is a chance for them to get an early win and gain confidence heading into the run in. A win for Arsenal would also bring them their first silverware since Arteta’s first season in charge. The gunners won the FA Cup following the first COVID lockdown back in the 2019/20 season. However, this would be the first trophy for Arteta since shaping the side in his own image. Arsenal gave their former player the time and funds to build a completely new squad than the one that won the FA Cup almost six years ago. And while they are now a much better side, they have yet to catch to cap it off with a trophy.
Guardiola will be hoping to win his fifth EFL Cup with City. It is their fifth appearance in the final under Guardiola having dominated this competition since arriving in England — winning it four times consecutively from 2018 to 2021. It could also be Guardiola’s final trophy for City. Speculation is rife about his future. Sources close to the situation believe that this could be his last season in England.
Arsenal and Manchester City drew 1–1 in the Premier League back in September — Getty Images
Expectations of a high scoring, end-to-end game will need to be tempered. A cagey affair seems much more likely. Arsenal have opted for more of a pragmatic approach this season, relying heavily on set piece goals and waiting for chances rather than forcing the issue — they often step that up even further in big games. They beat Chelsea 1–0 on Tuesday to cement their place in the final, happy to sit back and defend knowing that they did not need to score to progress. In their recent Premier League match with Manchester United, they played very safe football, dominating possession but creating very little.
Previous encounters between the two sides have followed a pattern more similar to a game of chess rather than a game of football. While a lot of fans find these tactical battles to be fascinating, they can also often be a drag to watch.
With so much on the line and both sides not needing a second invitation to score, it is understandable why neither side will want to give up anything meaningful. Arteta learned his trade under Guardiola and both sides play a very similar style of football which often leads to a cautious stalemate when they meet. With two of the most stacked squads in the world and a plethora of attacking talent though, it is a shame that they won’t go all out.
The chance to bag a first trophy of the season for both sides still in with a chance of the quadruple — unlikely but not out of the question — it is a chance to get one up in the title race too. If Arsenal win it gives them a lot of confidence knowing that they have beaten their closest competitor. But if City win the final, it will surely test Arsenal’s mettle. There is only six points between them as things stand and Arsenal have given up bigger leads in the league in recent years. With the pair still set to play each other in the league in April, a victory in the final would be huge for the mental side of the title race.
As the season moves into the business end, with both sides chasing glory, the Carabao Cup offers both sides the chance to win a first trophy of the season and gain momentum as the title race hots up. Arteta and Arsenal are looking for validation and a trophy to cap off a six-year rebuild. Pep and City will be looking to add to their legacy and, possibly, end his spell in England on a high note. While it’s often “just the League Cup”, this season it is a lot more.